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Health insurance costs for roughly 500,000 Maryland residents could surge next year as insurers brace for the loss of key federal subsidies.

Insurance companies offering plans on Maryland’s state exchange have proposed average premium hikes of 17% for individuals and 5.5% for small businesses, according to the Maryland Insurance Administration. These changes could make coverage unaffordable for many middle-income residents, especially as Medicaid cuts loom.

Officials warn that as many as 70,000 Marylanders may drop coverage if premiums rise sharply, leading to a sicker population and higher overall health care costs. “Carriers are assuming people will pay more out-of-pocket,” said Maryland Insurance Commissioner Marie Grant. “Younger, healthier people may leave the market.”

Established under the Affordable Care Act, Maryland’s exchange allows residents to buy private insurance if they’re not covered through an employer. Currently, around 250,000 individuals and many small businesses use the exchange.

The proposed increases, still awaiting approval, will be reviewed in public hearings this summer ahead of fall open enrollment. Insurers say the hikes are a response to federal subsidies expiring at year’s end, though Congress could still act to renew them. Without action, monthly premiums for a family of four could rise by $200, with individual plans increasing about $60.

CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield, the largest insurer on the exchange, is requesting an 18.7% hike, followed by UnitedHealthcare (18.6%), Kaiser Permanente (12%), and WellPoint (8.1%). Aetna will exit the market in 2026.

State lawmakers say they’re exploring options to offset losses, including expanding a 2019 reinsurance program that helps insurers manage costs from high-need patients. Still, they criticized the federal budget plan, which restricts enrollment periods and bans subsidies for legal non-citizens.

“Maryland has led the way in expanding access,” said Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk. “What the federal government is doing is shameful.”